This webpage presents our short- and medium-term macroeconomic projections and outlooks for Canada and Quebec. Our approach relies on a variety of forecasting exercises that cover a wide range of key economic indicators. La version française de cette page est disponible ici.
The forecasts presented in the tables below were produced using a variety of statistical models. Unlike most economic forecasts typically published by other organizations, including various financial institutions, the reported forecasts are solely based on statistical associations derived from historical data to extract their informational content, using a range of modern econometric tools. This edition of the Macroscope includes 37 predictive models. These models include standard regressions, regularization models and machine learning techniques applied to the Large Canadian Database for Macroeconomic Analysis (LCDMA). We present the median of our models’ forecasts to limit the impact of outliers. The dispersion of the forecasts is also indicated by the 10th and 90th percentiles, thereby providing a measure of models’ uncertainty without constituting a confidence interval. High dispersion suggests a greater diversity of possible futures, reflecting increased uncertainty. Additionally, the asymmetry of the distribution around the median (50th percentile) helps to understand the “direction” of this uncertainty. In this edition, short-term forecasts span the next 8 quarters, while medium-term annual forecasts cover the period from 2026 to 2030 inclusively.
It is important to note that recent geopolitical volatility, such as the conflict in the Middle East and its impact on energy, as well as the revision of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), and recent developments in budgetary, monetary, or trade policies, could lead to divergences between economic forecasts and actual outcomes. Nevertheless, our methodological approach retains the advantage of adequately capturing the current momentum of the Canadian and Quebec economies. Thus, our forecasts should be understood as baseline scenarios, established in the absence of new shocks likely to disrupt our economies.
For more details, the Macroscope report is available: here
(Click on the tables to zoom in)
Forecast table
