Forecasts produced on: September 30, 2026 · Horizon: 2026 Q3 to 2027 Q4 and 2026 to 2030
The current edition of the Macroscope incorporates 37 predictive models. These include standard regressions, regularization models, and machine-learning techniques applied to a broad set of macroeconomic data.Our forecasting approach relies exclusively on extracting statistical regularities from historical data dynamics.
Context of this edition
The geopolitical environment remains volatile and prone to abrupt disruptions. The armed conflict between the United States and Iran continues without a diplomatic breakthrough. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, along with heightened tensions around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, sustains the risks of disruptions to global energy and commodity prices. Added to this is the escalation of trade tensions since the non-renewal of CUSMA on July 1 and its annual review now in effect: following the breakdown of negotiations, the Trump administration has applied a 50% tariff since August 22 on many goods imported from Canada, even if they were exempt under the agreement. Canada has responded with countermeasures that took effect on September 8. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasts continues to hinge on the uncertainty surrounding governments’ fiscal and monetary policy orientations, both domestically and abroad. For example, the recent rise in interest rates on medium- and long-term securities (especially in the United States and France) could have consequences for global markets and the Canadian economy.
Forecasts
Annual horizons
| Realized | Forecasts | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | |
| Canada | ||||||
| Real GDP | 1.86 | 1.35[1.03 , 1.60] | 2.36[1.81 , 2.69] | 2.23[1.83 , 2.46] | 2.39[2.16 , 2.87] | 2.34[2.20 , 2.45] |
| Nominal GDP | 4.41 | 6.00[5.38 , 6.46] | 5.14[4.40 , 5.57] | 4.21[3.46 , 4.86] | 4.70[4.55 , 5.58] | 4.75[4.55 , 5.12] |
| Real Consumption | 2.36 | 1.97[1.77 , 2.15] | 2.42[2.13 , 2.49] | 2.43[2.03 , 2.53] | 2.39[2.23 , 2.51] | 2.45[2.39 , 2.62] |
| Real Investment | 1.57 | 1.09[0.68 , 1.48] | 2.10[1.18 , 2.68] | 2.00[0.49 , 2.31] | 2.50[1.40 , 2.90] | 2.62[0.90 , 2.92] |
| GDP Deflator | 2.51 | 4.54[3.87 , 4.84] | 2.72[2.19 , 3.07] | 1.92[1.32 , 2.66] | 2.26[2.05 , 2.70] | 2.31[2.21 , 2.71] |
| Overall Inflation Rate | 2.07 | 2.82[2.73 , 3.01] | 2.58[2.09 , 3.09] | 2.23[1.78 , 2.38] | 2.14[2.00 , 2.34] | 2.12[2.01 , 2.32] |
| Core Inflation Rate | 2.52 | 1.82[1.68 , 2.21] | 1.95[1.76 , 2.52] | 1.81[1.62 , 2.18] | 1.92[1.83 , 2.23] | 1.85[1.76 , 2.20] |
| USD/CAD Exchange Rate | 1.40 | 1.38[1.38 , 1.39] | 1.40[1.39 , 1.44] | 1.41[1.39 , 1.47] | 1.41[1.40 , 1.48] | 1.42[1.41 , 1.50] |
| Employment | 1.43 | 0.77[0.64 , 1.00] | 1.48[1.26 , 1.81] | 1.42[1.25 , 1.63] | 1.51[1.39 , 1.81] | 1.46[1.32 , 1.85] |
| Labour Force | 1.94 | 0.39[0.31 , 0.47] | 1.22[0.93 , 1.29] | 1.27[1.10 , 1.46] | 1.35[1.24 , 1.56] | 1.29[1.11 , 1.33] |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.86 | 6.64[6.48 , 6.67] | 6.61[6.33 , 6.75] | 6.60[6.38 , 6.80] | 6.54[6.15 , 6.76] | 6.44[5.85 , 6.65] |
| Salaires-composite† | 3.34 | 3.25* | ||||
| Real Salaires-composite† | 1.13 | 0.91** | ||||
| New Housing Prices | −1.08 | −1.99[−2.05 , −1.22] | 0.62[0.01 , 1.70] | 2.55[1.68 , 2.87] | 2.31[1.36 , 2.89] | 2.04[0.86 , 2.61] |
| Housing Starts‡ (x1000) | 258.40 | 252.77[251 , 255] | 253.90[241 , 262] | 253.85[237 , 269] | 255.69[234 , 268] | 257.54[234 , 271] |
| Québec | ||||||
| Real GDP | 0.61 | 0.86[0.61 , 1.15] | 1.91[1.39 , 2.20] | 1.93[1.62 , 2.21] | 2.06[1.86 , 2.67] | 2.07[1.90 , 2.40] |
| Nominal GDP | 4.76 | 4.14[3.89 , 4.52] | 4.27[4.07 , 4.51] | 4.16[4.04 , 4.54] | 4.26[4.17 , 5.15] | 4.30[4.22 , 5.13] |
| Real Consumption | 1.90 | 1.16[0.97 , 1.45] | 2.23[1.90 , 2.38] | 2.18[1.87 , 2.33] | 2.10[1.96 , 2.36] | 2.20[2.08 , 2.44] |
| Real Investment | 2.49 | 0.61[−0.05 , 0.90] | 1.92[0.64 , 2.54] | 2.12[1.20 , 2.41] | 2.23[0.93 , 2.65] | 2.52[1.01 , 3.11] |
| GDP Deflator | 4.10 | 3.24[3.13 , 3.47] | 2.27[2.08 , 2.72] | 2.20[2.00 , 2.70] | 2.16[1.97 , 2.67] | 2.15[2.06 , 2.56] |
| Overall Inflation Rate | 2.46 | 3.13[2.89 , 3.38] | 2.57[2.09 , 2.96] | 2.21[1.95 , 2.36] | 2.04[1.94 , 2.25] | 1.91[1.84 , 2.37] |
| Core Inflation Rate | 2.70 | 2.46[2.31 , 2.68] | 2.22[1.98 , 2.59] | 2.00[1.61 , 2.24] | 1.89[1.74 , 2.18] | 1.75[1.62 , 2.09] |
| Employment | 1.71 | −0.11[−0.36 , 0.23] | 1.10[0.82 , 1.32] | 1.14[0.90 , 1.29] | 1.37[1.12 , 1.63] | 1.08[0.93 , 1.59] |
| Labour Force | 2.01 | −0.64[−0.72 , −0.58] | 0.66[0.54 , 0.77] | 0.81[0.71 , 0.97] | 1.13[0.87 , 1.52] | 0.88[0.64 , 0.95] |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 5.62 | 5.62[5.52 , 5.68] | 5.54[5.22 , 5.70] | 5.45[5.12 , 5.67] | 5.29[4.89 , 5.60] | 5.13[4.72 , 5.51] |
| Salaires-composite† | 3.79 | 3.25* | ||||
| Real Salaires-composite† | 1.34 | 0.63** | ||||
| New Housing Prices | 2.63 | 2.88[2.67 , 3.14] | 2.64[1.83 , 3.10] | 2.70[1.86 , 3.32] | 2.88[2.11 , 3.32] | 2.94[1.86 , 3.30] |
| Housing Starts‡ (x1000) | 59.40 | 57.08[56 , 58] | 54.26[50 , 56] | 53.38[45 , 55] | 53.17[45 , 55] | 53.05[46 , 55] |
Quarterly horizons
| Realized | Forecasts | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 | 2026 Q2 | 2026 Q3 | 2026 Q4 | 2027 Q1 | 2027 Q2 | 2027 Q3 | 2027 Q4 | |
| Canada | ||||||||
| Real GDP | 0.06 | 1.13 | 1.82[1.30 , 2.58] | 2.40[1.68 , 2.69] | 2.58[1.88 , 3.19] | 2.21[1.69 , 2.71] | 2.30[1.73 , 2.65] | 2.33[1.83 , 2.64] |
| Nominal GDP | 3.23 | 7.05 | 7.19[5.91 , 8.09] | 6.55[5.12 , 7.43] | 6.30[4.71 , 7.19] | 4.69[3.93 , 5.64] | 4.68[4.02 , 5.37] | 4.91[4.12 , 5.54] |
| Real Consumption | 1.85 | 1.65 | 2.13[1.78 , 2.61] | 2.24[1.83 , 2.68] | 2.45[2.07 , 2.83] | 2.37[2.01 , 2.53] | 2.41[1.87 , 2.52] | 2.43[2.01 , 2.53] |
| Real Investment | −0.09 | 0.83 | 1.52[0.89 , 2.23] | 2.10[0.98 , 2.97] | 2.34[1.31 , 3.23] | 1.68[0.28 , 2.75] | 2.09[0.82 , 2.75] | 2.31[0.84 , 2.80] |
| GDP Deflator | 3.10 | 5.83 | 5.22[3.53 , 5.72] | 4.02[2.78 , 4.87] | 3.58[2.38 , 4.25] | 2.47[1.66 , 3.13] | 2.37[1.95 , 2.68] | 2.47[1.95 , 3.02] |
| Overall Inflation Rate | 2.15 | 2.95 | 3.11[2.96 , 3.49] | 3.06[2.74 , 3.69] | 2.95[2.38 , 3.70] | 2.52[1.96 , 3.10] | 2.45[1.79 , 2.70] | 2.41[1.75 , 2.61] |
| Core Inflation Rate | 2.07 | 1.63 | 1.73[1.49 , 2.35] | 1.87[1.50 , 2.65] | 2.08[1.60 , 2.93] | 1.97[1.79 , 2.63] | 1.88[1.64 , 2.35] | 1.88[1.62 , 2.28] |
| USD/CAD Exchange Rate | 1.37 | 1.38 | 1.39[1.38 , 1.40] | 1.39[1.39 , 1.42] | 1.40[1.39 , 1.43] | 1.40[1.39 , 1.43] | 1.40[1.39 , 1.44] | 1.40[1.39 , 1.45] |
| Employment | 0.43 | 0.50 | 0.98[0.74 , 1.51] | 1.18[0.90 , 1.61] | 1.53[1.17 , 1.98] | 1.45[1.24 , 1.71] | 1.45[1.16 , 1.60] | 1.49[1.32 , 1.81] |
| Labour Force | 0.39 | 0.23 | 0.47[0.34 , 0.62] | 0.46[0.25 , 0.63] | 1.14[0.95 , 1.25] | 1.26[0.73 , 1.39] | 1.22[1.01 , 1.30] | 1.26[1.04 , 1.36] |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.63 | 6.67 | 6.64[6.36 , 6.67] | 6.63[6.28 , 6.72] | 6.61[6.31 , 6.73] | 6.63[6.41 , 6.80] | 6.61[6.37 , 6.82] | 6.57[6.19 , 6.77] |
| Salaires-composite† | 3.27 | 3.25 | 3.03* | |||||
| Real Salaires-composite† | 1.03 | 0.79 | ||||||
| New Housing Prices | −2.25 | −2.34 | −2.01[−2.12 , −0.28] | −1.37[−1.57 , 0.17] | −0.55[−0.88 , 0.85] | 0.26[−0.35 , 1.73] | 1.15[0.19 , 2.18] | 1.64[1.12 , 2.16] |
| Housing Starts‡ (x1000) | 241.73 | 255.64 | 257.22[254 , 264] | 256.48[251 , 261] | 253.24[240 , 260] | 253.27[239 , 263] | 255.39[243 , 264] | 253.68[242 , 265] |
| Québec | ||||||||
| Real GDP | −0.21 | 0.60 | 1.36[0.84 , 2.15] | 1.69[1.30 , 2.14] | 2.05[1.63 , 2.51] | 1.85[1.29 , 2.20] | 1.82[1.39 , 2.10] | 1.90[1.50 , 2.17] |
| Nominal GDP | 3.57 | 4.21 | 4.46[4.12 , 5.33] | 4.33[3.61 , 5.02] | 4.45[3.87 , 5.09] | 4.18[3.69 , 4.56] | 4.17[3.67 , 4.66] | 4.27[4.08 , 4.79] |
| Real Consumption | 0.52 | 0.80 | 1.53[1.32 , 2.19] | 1.80[1.41 , 2.34] | 2.28[1.88 , 2.71] | 2.15[1.79 , 2.47] | 2.22[1.79 , 2.38] | 2.26[1.77 , 2.41] |
| Real Investment | −0.66 | 0.17 | 1.24[0.19 , 1.98] | 1.68[0.05 , 2.30] | 2.32[0.78 , 2.84] | 1.53[0.42 , 2.60] | 1.70[0.14 , 2.56] | 2.12[0.94 , 2.46] |
| GDP Deflator | 3.83 | 3.56 | 3.00[2.71 , 3.48] | 2.58[2.07 , 3.11] | 2.32[1.95 , 2.77] | 2.15[1.92 , 2.83] | 2.29[1.97 , 2.80] | 2.32[2.07 , 2.85] |
| Overall Inflation Rate | 2.90 | 3.28 | 3.25[2.72 , 3.67] | 3.08[2.64 , 3.69] | 2.88[2.46 , 3.71] | 2.57[2.04 , 3.15] | 2.48[1.86 , 2.74] | 2.35[1.83 , 2.64] |
| Core Inflation Rate | 2.82 | 2.36 | 2.33[2.08 , 2.66] | 2.31[1.96 , 2.87] | 2.33[1.97 , 3.22] | 2.20[2.00 , 2.69] | 2.22[2.04 , 2.68] | 2.14[1.87 , 2.57] |
| Employment | 0.03 | −1.04 | 0.06[−0.41 , 0.84] | 0.49[−0.13 , 1.12] | 0.98[0.48 , 1.46] | 1.16[0.75 , 1.46] | 1.12[0.80 , 1.26] | 1.14[0.98 , 1.39] |
| Labour Force | −0.07 | −1.34 | −0.72[−0.88 , −0.59] | −0.42[−0.62 , −0.31] | 0.05[−0.10 , 0.14] | 0.90[0.67 , 1.02] | 0.82[0.72 , 0.96] | 0.86[0.74 , 1.06] |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 5.50 | 5.73 | 5.66[5.40 , 5.72] | 5.60[5.40 , 5.78] | 5.57[5.20 , 5.73] | 5.62[5.41 , 5.80] | 5.52[5.17 , 5.70] | 5.47[4.84 , 5.66] |
| Salaires-composite† | 3.31 | 3.24 | 3.17* | |||||
| Real Salaires-composite† | 0.73 | 0.53 | ||||||
| New Housing Prices | 3.20 | 2.86 | 2.81[2.53 , 3.34] | 2.64[2.05 , 3.23] | 2.60[1.95 , 3.33] | 2.65[1.96 , 3.10] | 2.65[1.67 , 3.14] | 2.67[1.56 , 3.10] |
| Housing Starts‡ (x1000) | 62.48 | 54.44 | 55.78[54 , 57] | 55.61[53 , 56] | 54.70[52 , 56] | 54.12[51 , 56] | 54.12[50 , 56] | 54.12[46 , 56] |
In brackets: 10th and 90th percentiles of our models’ forecasts. All growth rates (in %) are year-over-year (y/y), unless otherwise indicated.
† The construction and values of the salaires-composite measure are presented in the Labour Market section of the Chaire’s website.
‡ Annualized number of housing starts, based on the average of monthly forecasts over the considered horizon.
* Average of our monthly salaires-composite measure over the period of interest, with information up to August 2026.
** Average of our quarterly salaires-composite measure over the period of interest, with information up to June 2026.
Forecasts of September 30, 2026. Source: Chaire en macroéconomie et prévisions, ESG UQAM.
How to read these forecasts
The value shown is the median of the forecasts from our 37 models. The median limits the influence of outliers.
In brackets, the 10th and 90th percentiles define the uncertainty interval: they show the diversity of scenarios anticipated by our portfolio of models. A wider interval signals greater uncertainty about future developments. The position of the median within the interval indicates the direction of this uncertainty.
These forecasts are baseline scenarios, assuming no new shocks that could materially alter the economic trajectory. Unforeseen shocks not incorporated into the models can create gaps between projections and observed outcomes. Nevertheless, the statistical framework underlying the Macroscope remains effective at capturing the current momentum of the Canadian and Québec economies.
Methodology and data
Models used
Our forecasting approach relies exclusively on extracting statistical regularities from historical data dynamics. It exploits their informational content without imposing any discretionary scenario, which distinguishes it from conventional approaches used by several organizations.
The current edition of the Macroscope incorporates 37 predictive models: standard regressions, regularization models, and machine-learning techniques applied to a broad set of macroeconomic data.
Detailed report
The Macroscope report presents the full analysis of this edition: download the report (PDF).
Questions: chairemacro@uqam.ca